The dark doldrums and the winter months
The construct of the German energy transition is fantasized on quicksand. There are great words and the religious worship of hydrogen instead of real facts.
In imperial Austria-Hungary, there was the saying “arguing about the emperor's beard”. Any discussion about the dark doldrums is just as pointless if you simply ignore the situation in the winter months.
|
The summer sun winter wind fairy tale
|
Once upon a time, fans of renewable energy thought that more solar power in summer and more wind power in winter was the solution.
However, this would require twice as many kW of wind turbines as photovoltaics. Instead of 2, the existing portfolio already only has 0.72 kW of wind per kW of PV. For new construction, it is only 0.25 kW wind per kW PV.
What would be the yield of 150 GW of PV and 300 GW of wind in Germany? First of all, the political enforceability and feasibility must be questioned. Then the consequences of the expansion of poorer locations and the wind shadow effect must be calculated.
This means that Power to X will have to be used on a massive scale in order to be able to use surplus solar power in summer in winter.
Just north of 50° North, it will be used to simulate the energy transition. It is assumed that Germany will have a net electricity demand of 900 TWh. This includes everything with electric mobility and heat pumps, but considerably less industry. If the same technical equipment in North Africa produces electricity at a third of the cost, it is simply unrealistic to assume a green steel industry for export in Germany.
For the simulation, 1 hectare of energy-optimized residential area is considered in each case. This has 1.35 MW of photovoltaics. This is then supplemented proportionally with either none, 68 kW, 135 kW or 270 kW wind power. This pattern is used so often that 900 TWh/a are achieved. This is then the multiplier.
The simulation notes the difference between the lowest and highest storage tank fill level for each year. The highest difference is then taken with a safety margin of 25%.
A purchase price of 10 cents/kWh HHV value was assumed for methane/methanol. When I clicked on the lowest price in one of the simulations, I was surprised to see that a considerable amount had been purchased.
| Scenario
| No wind
| 5% wind
| 10% wind
| 20% wind
|
| Photovoltaic kW
| 1.352
| 1.352
| 1.352
| 1.352
|
| Wind power kW
| 0
| 68
| 135
| 270
|
| Grid connection kW
| 80
| 80
| 135
| 270
|
| Batteries kWh
| 3.000
| 3.000
| 3.000
| 3.000
|
| Power to kW
| 80
| 80
| 80
| 100
|
| Chem. storage MWh
| 218
| 215
| 210
| 281
|
| Import calorific value MWh/a
| 23
| 29
| 3
| 51
|
| Continuous load kW
| 60
| 70
| 80
| 100
|
| Investment k€
| 724
| 805
| 919
| 1.172
|
| Cent / kWh
| 10,08
| 9,66
| 9,21
| 10,03
|
| Multiplier 900 TWh
| 1.712.329
| 1.467.410
| 1.284.247
| 1.027.397
|
| E-settlements km²
| 17.123
| 14.674
| 12.842
| 10.274
|
| Photovoltaics GW
| 2.315
| 1.984
| 1.736
| 1.389
|
| Wind power GW
| 0
| 100
| 173
| 277
|
| Batteries GWh
| 5.137
| 4.403
| 3.853
| 3.082
|
| Power to GW
| 137
| 117
| 103
| 103
|
| Chemical storage TWh
| 374
| 316
| 270
| 286
|
| Import HHV TWh/a
| 40
| 42
| 4
| 53
|
| Investment Germany G€
| 1.239
| 1.182
| 1.180
| 1.214
|
The load was increased in the simulation in 10 kW steps, the battery capacity in MW steps. With a smaller grid, the results would be more precise, but certainly not ready for the newsletter on Sunday.
If we surveyed Austria in a 10 km grid, the highest point might not even be 3000 m high, because all the high mountain peaks somewhere between the grid points are unnoticed. With a 1 km grid, the highest point would probably be 3500 m.
Such a simulation is not about whether it would not have been 0.02 cents/kWh cheaper with a 3.2 MWh battery and 86 kW power to methanol at 92 kW load, but about determining orders of magnitude and identifying phenomena. For example, the surprise that the purchase of methanol lowered the electricity price in one of the scenarios.
|
Poorer locations and slipstream effect
|
The expansion of wind power is already quite extreme in the 20% wind power to photovoltaics ratio. A 10% reduction in yield was calculated here due to poorer locations and the wake effect. If the reduction in yield is higher, it could become the most expensive scenario.
Germany has 25 km³ of underground storage. Withdrawal rates are reduced below 20% filling level. We learned this this year during the gas storage crisis in February 2026. 20 km³ of usable natural gas is around 200 TWh. However, the storage requirement in all scenarios is significantly higher. 300 TWh in hydrogen would be 96 km³ for the 80% easily removable. In total 120 km³. Instead of 25 km³ of underground storage due to a higher storage requirement and because hydrogen requires 3.2 times more volume, 120 km³? That could easily cost €400 billion, just because hydrogen is not an element for some fools, but a religious symbol.
With methanol, the tanks for 300 TWh cost less than €18 billion. That is already a very dramatic cost difference. Even cheaper, part of the surplus electricity goes into power to methane and is stored in the existing underground storage facilities, the rest goes into power to methanol and tanks for 100 TWh should cost less than €6 billion.
All this talk about new “ready for hydrogen” gas-fired power plants is nonsense with no relation to reality.
The scenarios are all in the region of 10 cents/kWh. With the hydrogen storage system alone, it would go up to 15 cents/kWh.
|
GEMINI next Generation Zrt. registered
|
On Thursday I received an email from the lawyer, the registration has been made. I will therefore be in Budapest on Tuesday to open an account.
Now it's all about improving the capital resources. Next up is the €400,000 for the prototype.
Here is our offer to join in
|
Who are we? Our shareholders
|
Who are we? Our shareholders.” I ask all old and hopefully soon numerous new shareholders for contributions of this kind.
|
Recruiting new shareholders
|
So far, only 2% of our shareholders have become shareholders themselves through new shareholder referrals. This should increase significantly in the future. The offer is 10% of the shares purchased for a direct referral and 5% for an assist. I understand the term assist in the same way as in soccer: whoever passes the ball to the scorer has made an assist. |
